First off, it is going to be weird seeing someone other than Jerry York leading the Eagles out of the tunnel on a nightly basis. From my perspective, I've probably been to five or six hundred BC hockey games in my life and all I've known is a program being led by one guy- the person with the most wins in the history of the game. While the past success is something that everyone involved in the program is proud of, it is up the new face of the program, Coach Brown, to put his own stamp on this team. We can all admit that the past six years have been a bit of a disappointment- no NCAA tournament wins (I am not counting the Notre Dame forfeit), no Beanpots, no Hockey East tournament titles, and plenty of gut-wrenching losses. Despite that, I know I am not the only one is excited about the direction this program is headed in- they have some exciting young players on this year's team and just as importantly (if not more so) they have some fantastic recruits in the pipeline that will hopefully enable BC to get back to the Frozen Four on a consistent basis. The nature of the game, particularly when it comes to how early guys are signing now as compared to say, 2011, makes it harder, in my opinion, for BC to sustain success, but that does not mean they can't make the NCAA tournament year in and year out- that should be the goal every single year. If you get into the tournament, you will always have a chance and I feel like the staff has done a fine job of ensuring that BC has the necessary talent in the coming years to ensure that those goals are attainable.
Now, onto this year. I am going to break this preview into two parts- first, I want to talk about the lineup. Secondly, I want to lay out what I see as the expectations. Let's get into it. First of all, this team is young. They have just four seniors- two of whom will probably see ice time night in and night out. They do have three grad transfers, all of whom will see significant ice time and will be vitally important in determining the team's success. With a new coach, I think it is critical that the seniors take control of the locker room and help Coach Brown establish his own culture- one that will, I think, be very similar to the one we saw under Coach York, but with its own nuances. From what I have seen and heard, Coach Brown has had nothing but good things to say about the leadership of this team, particularly when it comes to senior captain Marshall Warren.
I want to start with the forward group. Right off the bat, I can tell you that BC's success is going to be defined by whether or not Trevor Kuntar, Colby Ambrosio, and Nikita Nesterenko can become high-end players that put up close to, if not more, than a point per game this season. Last year, those three combined for 66 points and none of them were really sniffed a point per game level. In order for BC to win games, that 66 number has to come up drastically. I am more confident than others in BC's ability to run out two pretty good lines IF those three bring their games up to another level. Now, I don't think it is much of a talent issue- all three of them were high draft picks for a reason- but with increased playing time and offensive responsibility, they simply have to bring their production up to a different level. If it happens, BC can be dangerous, if it doesn't, not so much. Obviously, you have two freshmen that I expect to see top six minutes right away. Cutter Gauthier will be BC's top line center- he is perhaps the most highly touted freshman in the history of the program. Now, I do not think it is fair to throw all of these crazy expectations onto a freshman who is getting his first taste of college hockey, but BC needs Gauthier to be the type of the guy that can go out and create for himself and his teammates. Going back to my original point about the three juniors, this is why they are so critical. Gauthier is a good skater and can create opportunities for himself and others, but his best asset is his ability to put the puck in the net- BC needs Nesterenko and Ambrosio (more on this later) to ensure that Gauthier gets plenty of opportunities to let his skills shine. Secondly, I expect Oskar Jellvik to be the second line center. I've heard from numerous people who were impressed with Jellvik at Bruins camp a few weeks ago and I do not think it is unreasonable to think that he will come in and be an immediate contributor. He can play both center and wing, but I think BC wants him to slot in as second line center.
In talking to people around the program, it is pretty clear to me that their biggest concern is finding a sixth forward. They believe they have five guys that can play at a high level, but they need someone to step up into that sixth spot- as a right wing on the second line. Now, I am not sure what path the staff will want to take, because, to me, it makes the most sense to have a third line of Christian O'Neill-Cam Burke-Mike Posma, but I do not know if either O'Neill or Posma will be comfortable playing the off-wing either on that line or on the second line with Kuntar and Jellvik. They could try freshman Andre Gasseau on that second line, but Gasseau has been a center for most of his career. They brought in Burke so that he could be that third line center and I do not see a world where Gasseau plays on the fourth line, so ideally, he is your second line right wing, but again, he is a left handed shot and that may not work out. As you can tell, most of BC's top nine players are left-handed shots- Ambrosio is the only right handed shot I see playing any top nine minutes. Is this something they can work around? Yes, but with so many young players, it may be a bit of an adjustment.
As I alluded to in the previous paragraph, in an ideal world, O'Neill-Burke-Posma is your third line. That gives you three guys who can really skate and apply pressure in the offensive end- secondary scoring was a massive problem for BC last season and if those guys can contribute offensively, it takes some of the pressure off of the top six. Burke and O'Neill were not offensive machines at their previous schools, but there isn't a dearth of offensive skill sets in either player. Both guys were relatively highly touted offensive players out of high school (despite attending Belmont Hill and Nobles), respectively, and maybe playing in a system that is a little more free-wheeling and open will help them achieve high levels of production.
As for the fourth line, I expect Connor Joyce to be the fourth line center, but I am a little unsure on the wings. I think you will see some different players rotate through the wings on the bottom line- if I were a betting man, I would have Traeger-Joyce-Argentina as BC's fourth line, but obviously, guys like Shamburger and Izyk will compete for those positions. Now, there you have a ton of righties who can play the wing, but I do not think any of those guys are seeing top nine minutes. Simply put, I wouldn't be surprised by any combination of the above-referenced players starting on opening night.
I do think BC is quietly optimistic about their defensive core, but they may be a little thin if the freshmen do not get acclimated quickly. Of course, I expect that Marshall Warren is going to be getting a ton of minutes every night. He is by far BC's top defenseman and if he builds on the fantastic year he had a season ago, he will be one of the top blue liners in Hockey East. Aidan Hreschuk and Eamon Powell will be BC's second and third defensemen and will see huge increases in minutes after the departures of Jack St. Ivany and Drew Helleson. I thought both of these guys had fine freshman seasons, but the staff is going to be depending on them to deliver more minutes. After that, you have the two freshmen- Charlie Leddy, a fourth round pick of the New Jersey Devils and Lukas Gustafsson, a Georgia native who is coming off a stellar USHL season. I believe that BC can rely on these five guys to move the puck and play heavy minutes on the power play given that they all bring pretty good offensive skillsets, but will they be good enough in their own end is the question mark to me. There isn't a whole lot of size in that top five, but I assume they'll have Mitch Andres slide into that sixth slot to make up for that deficiency. I would be surprised if they do not dress an extra defenseman out of the gate because they are a little top heavy back there and they likely do not want Warren getting so many minutes right off the bat. Again, it is a consistent theme for me- they need certain players to take their games up to another level because of the talent that departed from a season ago. Can guys like Powell and Hreschuk become reliable top four Hockey East defensemen from the get-go? I believe they can, but that question mark is going to be a major factor in whether BC can win games.
Lastly, I think Mitch Benson will be the starting goaltender. I was talking with a friend the other day and he made a great point- it's incredible how spoiled we (BC fans) have been when it comes to the goaltending position. Before last season, when is the last time you pointed to goaltending as a weakness for a BC team? I mean we had a stretch of Scott Clemmensen, Matti Kaltiainen, Cory Schneider, John Muse, Thatcher Demko, Joe Woll and Spencer Knight- it does not get much better than that! Like you, I am a little worried about going the transfer portal route for the second straight year when it comes to the goaltending position, but just because it did not work last year does not mean it won't work this year. Benson put up good numbers the last two seasons at Colgate and if he posts a similar line of 2.39 GAA and .922 this season, I think BC will be more than okay in-between the pipes.
So, to summarize, here is how I see the lineup shaking out on day one.
Nesterenko-Gauthier-Ambrosio
Kuntar-Jellvik-Gasseau
O'Neill-Burke-Posma
Traeger-Joyce-Argentina
Warren-Hreschuk
E. Powell-Gustafsson
Leddy-Andres
S. Powell (extra defenseman)
Benson
Wilder
Silverstein
Ok, lastly, I want to talk about expectations. This is BC and obviously, with the resources, history, and tradition surrounding this program, you expect to compete on a national level every single year. I have total confidence that Coach Brown will get this program back to prominence sooner rather than later, but I think we all need to keep our expectations in-check this year. This is a team that has top-end talent, but it is thin in a lot of areas. If there is an injury to one of their top five forwards, I am just not sure how they can replace that. A lot is riding on whether or not they have a third line that can work some magic offensively. Their top two lines are definitely good, but not good enough to the extent that you can only rely on them for scoring. It is imperative that players like O'Neill, Burke, Gasseau and Posma contribute offensively. If that happens, this team will surprise people in a good way. If it doesn't, well, there is always golf season.
My prediction is that BC finishes fourth in Hockey East and between 20-25 in the pairwise rankings, missing the NCAA tournament for a second consecutive season. I just do not think they are deep enough across the board- obviously, no one wants me to be wrong on this more than I do, but I just think it is unrealistic to expect this team to compete on a national level right now. Having said that, I am on the record as being very, very excited about the future of this program- their freshman class in the fall of 2023 is perhaps the best BC has had in a longtime and if some of the juniors stick around for another year (unlikely, but you never know), BC will be one of the favorites to get back to the Frozen Four in short order. Right now, though, I think it is about building the program back up and ensuring that they are a tough out on a nightly basis. Don't get me wrong, I think this team will win some games no one expects it to, but my concern is whether or not they can avoid those duds that plagued them so often a year ago.
So that is all I've got for now. I will be writing posts either on a weekly or bi-weekly basis throughout the season, but the best way to stay updated is through my Twitter- @BCHockeyBlogger- I will be tweeting as much info as I can about the team.
Here's to a new era of Boston College hockey. Go Eagles.
