Maine/BU Thoughts

I wanted to write a post with some thoughts on the past two games as BC lost to Maine 3-1 on Friday night, before ending their eight-game wineless streak against Boston University on Monday. I thought Friday was a rough outing as they once again had a lot of problems generating five on five offense. Yes, BC outshot Maine 32-21, but in terms of high-quality looks, the game was even. Throughout the contest, Maine generated grade A chances, many that were the result of careless turnovers from BC. You can't expect a team to play a turnover-free game, but BC continues to shoot themselves in the foot, particularly from behind their own blue line, with lousy passes that find opposing jerseys. Right now, I think BC has three defensemen that they can consistently rely on when it comes to breaking the puck out. That isn't to say that these guys do not make mistakes- they've made more than a few this season, but I think right now, the staff is playing one or two defensemen every night on the blue line they would rather have as an eighth option. 

The first Maine goal was, yes, the result of a BC turnover. Cutter Gauthier got hit on the half-wall, preventing the puck from getting out to the neutral zone and not one Eagle picked up the Maine forward in front of the net as the Black Bears took a 1-0 lead. It was one of those simple plays- the puck simply had to get out and once it didn't, BC could not recover in their own zone. 

BC had a chance to tie the game up before the end of the first period, but they gave up a shorthanded goal, doubling the Maine lead. BC had a chance to corral the puck after winning the face-off, but Eamon Powell was a half-second late, which allowed Didrik Henbradt to go in all alone on Mitch Benson. BC's power-play has been great all year, but on this play, you saw two of their best players, Powell and Gauthier, just get beat to the puck on the wall. The second goal was really a microcosm of the entire game- Maine was doing the little things right all night, while BC just lost more small battles than they won. 

Throughout the rest of the game, I thought BC had a couple of chances here and there, but for the most part, Maine kept them out of the prime scoring areas. In particular, I thought BC's top guys really struggled in this game. Colby Ambrosio had a relatively solid bounce back game, but they didn't get what they needed from Gauthier, Gasseau and Nesterenko. It was eerily similar to the Vermont contests- BC had the puck for the majority of the game, got a few chances here and there, but for the most part were kept to the outside of the zone. 

Now, give BC some credit for making it a one goal game in the third, when Trevor Kuntar finally beat Maine goalie Victor Ostman with just under four minutes to play. However, once BC pulled Benson, they turned the puck over at their offensive blue line and that was all she wrote. 

This was right there with the Vermont and BU (at Agganis) games in terms of most disappointing of the season. Despite BC not getting the results they desired over the past four weeks, they've played some pretty solid hockey in a bunch of those games. That was not the case on Friday as they, quite honestly, looked out of sorts at times. Maine was not giving them much room and BC did not have enough in the tank to make one more play at the end. It was a dispiriting result and one that really hurt them in the Hockey East standings- no one wants to play in Orono for the first round of the Hockey East playoffs. 

Now, I am not going to lie, I was surprised to see that BC rolled out basically the exact same lineup for last night's game against BU, minus a defensive substitution. I honestly figured they would try to put Nesterenko with Gauthier to try and provide more of an offensive spark, but clearly I was wrong! BC bounced back on Monday, beating archrival BU 4-2 in the first ever consolation game between the two schools in the 70-year history of the Beanpot. 

I am going to be honest, I could not get out of work for this game, and it was not on ESPN+, so I could not watch it in real time, but I saw some of the highlights and heard from people at the game. From what I can gather, BC played well tonight against a Terrier team that has now lost two in a row for the first time all year. BC got on the board less than two minutes into the game, when Oskar Jellvik made a fantastic pass at the top of offensive zone to Nikita Nesterenko, who beat Drew Commesso, giving BC a 1-0 lead. 

BC doubled their lead at little over halfway through the first, when Eamon Powell recorded a power-play goal, his fourth goal of the season. Now, I have to say, after a few weeks of getting some bad bounces, BC had a few go their way today. Powell's goal deflected off of BU defenseman Case McCarthy's skate, before finding the net. Powell did a nice job of finding the open lane that BU gave him- if you watch the replay, it looks like the BU forward at the top of the box just completely whiffed in terms of finding the right spot to prevent Powell's shot from getting towards the net. A lucky break? Certainly, but I know BC will take it given the way things have gone recently. 

As has been the story all year, BC let BU right back into the game almost immediately after they took the two goal  lead. BU freshman Ryan Greene beat Benson on what appeared to be a pretty soft goal. It looked like two of BC's forwards over-skated the puck and Benson was just beat by a shot that he probably should have had. I need a better look at the shot, but it looked to me like it was a relatively innocent snap-shot, one that had a low trajectory on its way to the net. 

The teams played an even second period, but one that was filled with penalties. This is now two games in a row where BC's penalty kill has held the opponent off the scoresheet. Again, I did not see the game, so I can't really comment on what they did in terms of personnel, but in their four games against BU this year, they have had a fair amount of success on the penalty-kill. Hopefully they can keep this up going into their weekend series with UMass, who has the third best power-play in college hockey. 

The Eagles held the Terriers at bay until the 11:44 mark of the third period as Jay O'Brien beat Benson on the doorstep to tie the game at two. To me, it looked like Cutter Gauther had O'Brien covered at the top of the zone, before O'Brien darted towards the net. Then, I think BC tried to switch and get a winger (Christian O'Neill) to pick up O'Brien, but the Terrier forward was a step quicker and able to beat Benson with a tap in goal. BU freshman Jeremy Wilmer made a fantastic pass (from my vantage point) on the play. 

So, yes, I thought it was going to be the same old story with BC blowing another third period lead, but this time they got perhaps their biggest break of the season when Andre Gasseau made it 3-2 25 seconds after the O'Brien goal. Gasseau just threw a shot on net that hit Commesso's glove and ricocheted into the net. To be honest, it looked to me like the puck was going to go over the net, but Commesso tried to make a play on it. 

I know this is probably a cheap point to make, but BC needed a bounce to go their way for once. They've had so many close calls this season and many of those have ended in heartbreak, but on this night, they got the bounces they needed to garner a win. Now, don't get me wrong, BC was the better team in this game and deserved to win, but it certainly didn't hurt that they had a few things go their way. Lastly, credit to them for closing it out in the last few minutes. We all know they've had their struggles with that this season, but it appears that they didn't give BU much of anything coming down the stretch. Besides the O'Brien goal, this, according to those who were there, was a solid defensive performance for the Eagles against perhaps the best offensive team in college hockey.

Alright, so let's reset. Yes, it was the consolation game, but there is no such thing as a meaningless win against BU. The Eagles absolutely had to find a way to get off this skid and they did so against their nemesis. Whether or not they use this game a springboard is the million-dollar question. An at-large bid is out the window at this point, but I feel pretty confident in saying that BC can beat anyone in the Hockey East playoffs, especially with the way things are set up. Their first order of business is ensuring that they get home ice for the first round- going to Orono or Amherst in round one would be an absolute nightmare. No, BC has not been great at Conte this year, but you still take your chances on home ice in this league. To close the year, they have UMass, Maine and UConn, all two times- BC has got to find a way to win four of those six games to put themselves in a spot to play either UNH or UVM (both of whom are playing well right now) at Conte Forum.

This is an important weekend coming up against a UMass team that is neck and neck with BC in the Hockey East standings. Obviously, they have to create more chances 5 on 5. The win against BU was a good start, but UMass will present its own set of challenges.  When they score more than three goals, the Eagles are undefeated this season. They have a great power-play, but they're not getting enough from their big guns when it comes to scoring at even strength. The key from here until the end of the road is going to be whether or not they show improvement in that area. If you look at the advanced metrics, BC has probably gotten the short end of the stick in terms of their offensive production. For example, they are 13th in college hockey in terms of Corsi for percentage at even strength (% of shots taken vs opponent), but they are tied for 32nd in terms of goals per game. Furthermore, BC is only seeing 8.5% of their shots find the back of the net- that is 47th in the country. I think that says more about the quality of shots BC is generating more so than anything else, but there have been games where they simply ran into some outstanding goaltending. That is all a long way of saying that the metrics show that BC probably should have a few more goals than they've actually scored this year, but that is just the way this game goes.  Perhaps BC will start to see things swing their way a little bit in the last month of the year. 

If BC can do three things- score more 5 on 5 goals, kill penalties at a higher rate and get marginally better goaltending (they are currently 36th in save percentage nationwide), I think they'll win some of these games to close the season. UMass is a team they've had some success against over the past couple of years, so hopefully they can carry their game from Monday into the weekend. We'll see you then. 

Go Eagles