Sunday, February 19, 2023

UMass Thoughts

Well, well, well- look who is getting back up off the mat! BC edged UMass last night 3-1 to put an exclamation point on their best week of the season with a sweep of the Minutemen and a Beanpot consolation game victory over archival BU. The two wins this weekend were vital for a few reasons, the foremost being that BC is now in a good spot to get home ice in the first round of the Hockey East playoffs. With the wins, BC is now sitting at 7th in the league standings, just five points behind the six seed Providence Friars, who are idle this upcoming week before ending the regular season with a home and home against BU. 

Before anything else, this team deserves credit for how they responded this week. After the brutal loss to Harvard and the lackluster effort at home against Maine, things could have taken a tailspin against a talented BU team and a UMass squad that was neck and neck with BC in the standings. Not only did BC win all three games, they were the better team in each contest- generating high quality looks at even strength, playing sound defensive hockey (for the most part), and winning the special teams battle. This is going to be their formula going forward- they can skate with anyone in this league at even strength, so if they don't kill themselves on the penalty kill as they did against Vermont and Harvard, I think they're going to be very dangerous down the stretch. 

I would be lying to you if I thought there was any chance they were going to put seven goals up in a game this weekend- let alone five in the first period on Friday. To be honest, I thought UMass got the better of BC during the first two or three shifts of game one, but after that, it was like men against boys for the remainder of the opening stanza. Colby Ambrosio got the party started eight minutes into the period, when he caught UMass sleeping in their own end and beat goalie Luke Pavicich glove side, giving BC a 1-0 lead. BC's best line on Friday was definitely their second unit of Ambrosio-Nesterenko-Jellvik. They were flying around the entire game and creating offensive zone chances seemingly every shift. Ambrosio's goal was assisted by Charlie Leddy- the first of two helpers for Leddy. I thought the freshman defenseman had perhaps his best weekend of the season. On Saturday, they relied on him for a lot of minutes with Lukas Gustafsson out (we will get to that) and I thought he came through with another good game. 

BC doubled its lead six minutes later when Mike Posma put a Will Traeger shot by Pavicich. This was at the end of an outstanding shift from BC's fourth line- they had UMass pinned in their own zone for almost a minute by cycling the puck down low and after getting one to the net, Posma was able to capitalize. The combination of Traeger-Posma-Joyce was fantastic for BC all weekend- they generated a few quality chances each night, played a part in some key penalty kills, and as we will get to, got another big goal on Saturday. 

The star of the show on Friday night was Nikita Nesterenko. It was probably the best game I have seen him play in a BC uniform. There are just some nights where he turns it up to a gear that few others in Hockey East can reach- he has great speed for someone his size and a skill set in terms of his ability to make things happen with the puck that is almost unmatched in this league. His first goal, BC's third, was made possible thanks to a great play in the neutral zone by Oskar Jellvik, which allowed Nesterenko to go in all alone on the UMass net. While Nesterenko was the best player for BC on Friday, Jellvik was not far behind- he had three points in this game, which, to go along with his goal against BU on Monday, goes to show how much he has improved since the season has gone on. Like I said last week, I figured BC would maybe change their lines going into the BU game, but I don't see how they can mess with that now. Nesterenko is playing some of the best hockey of his career right now and it is fun to watch. 

BC added two more goals before the end of the opening 20 minutes. Jellvik tipped home an Eamon Powell shot with three minutes left in the period. After some games where BC seemingly ran into a hot goalie every night, they have certainly been able to score some "soft" ones over the past three games- they were not getting the bounces earlier in the year, but now are being rewarded for bringing more pressure in the offensive zone. Marshall Warren put the cherry on top of the period when he skated by the entire UMass squad and fired one past Pavicich, giving BC the 5-0 edge. If you told me on Friday night that BC would have five goals in the first period- all of them being at even strength (!), I probably would have asked if you had gotten your head examined recently. For a team that has been struggling to score 5 on 5 for the most of the year, this weekend was a welcome surprise and step in the right direction. 

After leading 5-0 after one, BC (understandably) tried to put things on cruise control for the rest of the game, but some untimely penalties and turnovers gave way to a bit of unease in Conte Forum before Nesterenko sent everyone home with his third goal in the third period. A few notes from the final two periods. First, Lukas Gustafsson was the victim of a dirty hit at center ice from UMass forward Taylor Makar. It looked to me like Gustafsson was hit up high and Makar was rightfully thrown out of the game. Now, Gustafsson did return after that hit, but apparently he was dinged up enough that they kept him out of Saturday's contest. There may have been another hit on Gustafsson late in the third period of Friday's game that exacerbated his injury, but to be honest, I did not see that hit. I do not believe it is a long term injury. Secondly, Nesternko's second goal was a thing of beauty- he looked off the UMass defenseman, getting him to move off of the net before firing one home. BC's power-play wasn't firing on all cylinders on Friday, but the game was out of the hand so early that they were mostly just trying to play keep away from the remaining 40 minutes. Their man advantage would come through on Saturday night at a big moment. Lastly, I thought BC's penalty kill was fantastic this weekend. Entering this weekend, UMass had the third best power-play in the country, but BC kept them at bay, as the Minutemen went 1-5 on Friday and 0-4 on Saturday. I am noticing that BC is trying to put more pressure on the point- which led to more blocked shots and deflections that they were able to clear. The penalty kill has been their Achilles heel for a majority of the season, but there has been a steady improvement since the Harvard game. Let's hope things keep moving in the right direction. 

I won't lie, I got a tiny bit nervous when UMass made it 6-3 with just under ten minutes to play in the third period, but BC got an important penalty kill to keep the score within three. Of course, Nesterenko put the final nail in the coffin with eight minutes to go in the game- Aidan Hreschuk made a great pass on this play. 

As expected, Saturday's game was much tighter- UMass obviously made it a point to play better in their own end, which meant that BC did not have much space to maneuver for the first forty minutes or so.  UMass got on the board 8:33 into the game, when Michael Cameron beat Benson with a tip off of a Kenny Connors shot. Watching the replay, it looks like BC may have been caught in a bad change, but I am not totally sure. If you look at it, there are only four Eagles in the frame, with the fifth guy coming in from the bench. That allowed Connors to skate in towards Benson before firing the shot that eventually got deflected by the BC netminder. I thought BC was a bit fortunate to get out of the first only down a goal- they were on their heels for most of the stanza. With Gustafsson out, they had to give regular shifts to guys that they normally wouldn't, but I thought players like Seamus Powell held their own, especially on the big sheet at Mullins Center. 

I thought BC started to find their game in the second period- they had a few chances five on five, but were stonewalled by UMass goalie Cole Brady, who has not seen a lot of action this season. While BC outshot the Minutemen in the second, I thought UMass did a pretty solid job of keeping a lot of BC's chances to the perimeter, something that did not happen on Friday night. On the flip side, BC's thin defensive corps did a great job of clearing pucks out of the zone, avoiding costly turnovers, and not allowing UMass to generate many high-end looks of their own. Eamon Powell and Marshall Warren played a ton last night as they are quite obviously the two blue liners the staff trusts more than anyone else right now. 

BC had their first chance to tie the game with five minutes left in the second period, when UMass forward Ryan Lautenbach was sent to the sin bid for tripping. BC did not get much going on this power-play, but that wasn't the case when UMass took yet another tripping penalty with under a minute to go in the period. Cutter Gauthier had some space near the half-wall, but instead of firing one on net, he found an open Trevor Kuntar in the slot, allowing Kuntar to redirect up and over Brady, tying the game at one. In real time, I thought Kuntar just slid the puck by Brady, but in fact, it went over Brady's head, before settling behind the goal line. Lucky bounce? Yes. Will they take it? Obviously! BC needed their power-play to come through for them at a big moment and they were certainly able to do that- this was a huge goal, allowing BC to even things up before the final period. 

The final period was relatively evenly played, but some great individual efforts on the part of Kuntar and Connor Joyce allowed BC to escape Amherst with a 3-1 victory. Kuntar's goal was just the result of hard work and speed through the neutral zone- Andre Gasseau made a fantastic play in the defensive end, taking the puck from a UMass forward, before finding Kuntar in the middle of the ice. Kuntar then went right around UMass star defenseman Scott Morrow en route to the net before putting one by Brady and giving the Eagles the lead. That goal was a great example of what Kuntar can be when he is at his best- a physical power forward who also has some speed for someone of his build. 

Connor Joyce extended the BC lead to 3-1, when he fired a loose puck by Brady with 10:15 left in the game. This was the end result of yet another great shift from BC's fourth line- Mike Posma fired to original shot towards the net, but it looks like the puck took a fortuitous bounce off the boards, which allowed Joyce, who just beat the UMass defenseman to the puck, to put it home. I do not want to be repetitive, but I thought BC's fourth line was everything they needed it to be this weekend. They got pucks low, made it hard on the opponent to defend, and cashed in on some opportunities- it was great to see. 

For a minute, it appeared as if Trevor Kuntar recorded a hat-trick, when he once again redirected a Cutter Gauthier shot into the net, but UMass challenged the goal for offsides and it was (rightfully) waved off. Anyways, I thought BC did a nice job of buckling down in their own end once they made it a two goal game. They did take a penalty (I thought it was a weak call) with two minutes to go, allowing UMass to have a 6 on 4 advantage, but they were able to get the stops needed to get out of western Massachusetts with a two goal victory. It was a gusty road performance by an Eagles team that has honestly played some pretty good hockey away from Conte Forum this season, the game at Agganis notwithstanding. 

Alright let's reset. This team is playing some good hockey at the moment and they have a chance to fly up the Hockey East standings with four games left- two apiece against Maine and UConn. Right now, BC is in 7th place and if the season ended today (which it does not), they would be playing UMass at Conte Forum in the first round of the Hockey East playoffs. Their goal should be to get the 6th seed in the league standings. There is a very slim chance that they can climb into the top five-they would probably need to 11 or 12 points in their final four games, but the most important thing is that they head into the playoffs playing their best hockey. By my math (not exactly Einstein's math skills), BC needs just one win this weekend at Maine to ensure that they get a home game in the first round. In a one and done system (I prefer the old Hockey East playoff format), anything can happen and there is no guarantee that they beat anyone in the playoffs. However, if they can stay healthy through this stretch run, they have a real chance to make a run. I mean, BC can absolutely play with (and beat) anyone in Hockey East right now. It is imperative that they get a home game for the first round, at the bare minimum. If they slide into that fifth seed and have to play at the four seed, that is probably even better because then you do not have to play on that Wednesday night. Either way, you know at some point you're likely going to have to win one road game at either BU, Merrimack, Northeastern, UConn, or Lowell to keep the season going (if they get past the first round). Unfortunately, despite this week's results, the NCAA tournament is still not a realistic avenue for BC at the moment. If they get two wins at Maine, then perhaps we can have that discussion, but they're still too far out right now. 

In conclusion, this team should be proud of the way they have battled back after some disappointing results. Right now, BC is heads and shoulders better than they were at this point last season. They play with more structure and they're more consistent on a nightly basis. Do they still have some issues? Of course, but they're righting the ship at the right time. I am excited to see what they can do over the next three weeks. 

Go Eagles



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